Study on the features of thermodynamic field influencing MCSs trajectories over the Tibetan Plateau(Chinese)
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摘要: 利用国家气象中心高分辨率有限区域分析预报系统产品(HLAFS)中的数值格点预报资料，运用空间数据挖掘中的聚类方法 (K均值法和CLARANS法)，对影响1998年夏季青藏高原上中尺度对流系统（MCSs）东移的热力场的空间分布特征进行了研究，得到了有利于MCSs移动和传播的热力学条件.结果表明，MCSs周边热力场中的温度场、湿度场以及水汽通量散度场空间分布特征的变化可以为MCSs发展和演变的预测提供重要线索，从而为探讨高原上MCSs的移动规律，揭示其发生和发展的机理提供了一种有效的新途径.Abstract: Clustering methods of K-means and CLARANS were applied to analyze the spatial distribution features of the thermodynamic field that influenced Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) moving eastward out of the Tibetan Plateau from June to August in 1998, using data from the high resolution limited area analysis and forecasting system (HLAFS) provided by China National Meteorological Center; and the thermodynamic conditions favoring the trajectories and propagations of MCSs were obtained. The results indicate that the changes of the spatial distribution features of temperature field, humidity field and water vapor flux divergence field are essential factors to predict the development and evolution of MCSs.
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