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摘要: 已有研究表明，暴雨的形成常常与中尺度对流系统(MCSs)的移动息息相关，而引起中尺度对流系统移动的成因十分复杂.该文利用日本地球静止气象卫星(GMS)记录的红外辐射亮温资料对1998年6-8月青藏高原上的MCSs进行了自动追踪。在此基础上，运用空间数据挖掘中的决策树方法建立了移出高原的MCSs与其环境物理量场之间的关系，结果表明，利用该法来预测MCSs未来的移动路径是切实可行的。Abstract: The evidences have indicated that rainstorms are usually related with the movement of MCSs, however, the factors of influencing MCSs movement are very complex. In this paper, GMS infrared blackbody temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from June to August 1998 are used to automatically track themovement routes of MCSs. Based on these, spatial data mining method, decision tree, is used to develop the relationships between the movement routes of MCSs and their environmental physical field values, the results indicate that it is feasible to forecast the movement routes of MCSs using decision tree.
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