南水北调工程对长江口盐水入侵和淡水资源的影响

苏爱平; 吕行行; 吴宇帆

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.201941031

南水北调工程对长江口盐水入侵和淡水资源的影响

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.201941031

1.
上海勘测设计研究院有限公司, 上海　200434
2.
华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室, 上海　200241

详细信息

通讯作者:
苏爱平, 女, 高级工程师, 从事水利、水电、河口海岸工程等研究. E-mail: su_aiping@126.com

中图分类号: P731.2
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- 文章访问数: 178
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-10-09
- 网络出版日期: 2020-05-29
- 刊出日期: 2020-05-01

Impact of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project on saltwater intrusion and freshwater resources in the Changjiang Estuary

1.
Shanghai Investigation, Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd, Shanghai　200434, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai　200241, China

摘要

摘要: 南水北调工程为跨流域调水工程, 其对于长江口淡水资源变迁的影响是当今研究热点之一. 本文应用三维数学模型, 研究南水北调东线和中线工程短期和远期调水方案对长江河口盐水入侵和淡水资源的影响. 结果表明, 在2月中下旬一个大小潮周期中, 东风西沙水库、陈行水库和青草沙水库取水口盐度大于0.45的不宜取水时间分别为7.74、3.08和2.72 d. 同时, 在东线和中线工程短期调水1 000 m³/s情况下, 长江河口盐水入侵加剧, 尤其在北港、北槽和南槽拦门沙区域及其北支上段盐度上升最为明显, 出现了量值超过0.5的大面积区域, 南支淡水区域减小. 在2月中下旬一个大小潮周期中东风西沙水库、陈行水库和青草沙水库不宜取水的时间分别增长了1.43、2.14和2.13 d. 在东线和中线工程远期调水1 600 m³/s情况下, 整个河口盐度的上升更为明显, 在北港、北槽和南槽拦门沙出现了盐度超过1的大范围区域, 小范围区域盐度超过了1.5, 南水淡水范围进一步减小. 在2月中下旬一个大小潮周期中东风西沙水库、陈行水库和青草沙水库不宜取水的时间分别增加了1.49、3.08和3.08 d.
- 长江河口 /
- 南水北调工程 /
- 盐水入侵 /
- 淡水资源 /
- 数值模拟
Abstract: The South-to-North Water Diversion Project is an interbasin water diversion project, whose impact on changes in freshwater resources in the Changjiang Estuary is of widespread interest. In this paper, we used a 3D numerical model of estuarine saltwater intrusion to study the impact on saltwater intrusion and freshwater resources in the Changjiang Estuary from both short-term and long-term perspectives. The study, moreover, was focused on the eastern and middle route water transfer schemes of the Project. The results indicate that during the neap-spring tide period in mid-to-late February, the unavailable water intake time, corresponding to salinity greater than 0.45 at the water inlets of the Dongfengxisha, Chenhang, and Qingcaosha is 7.74, 3.08, and 2.72 days, respectively. In the case of a short-term water transfer scheme at river discharge of 1 000 m³/s, saltwater intrusion is intensified, especially at the river mouths of the North Channel, North and South Passages, and in the upper reaches of the North Branch, where salinity rise is most noticeable and a large area shows a salinity rise greater than 0.5; meanwhile, the supply of freshwater in the South Branch decreases. During the neap-spring tide period in mid-to-late February, the unavailable water intake time at the water inlets of the Dongfengxisha, Chenhang and Qingcaosha Reservoirs increases by 1.43, 2.14 and 2.13 days, respectively. In the case of long-term water transfer schemes at river discharge of 1 600 m³/s, the salinity rise in the entire estuary is even more noticeable; a large area of salinity rise greater than 1 shows up on the river mouths of the North Channel, North and South Passages, and a small area of salinity rise greater than 1.5. The supply of freshwater in the South Branch also decreases. During the neap-spring tide period in mid-to-late February, the unavailable water intake time at the water inlets of Dongfengxisha, Chenhang, and Qingcaosha Reservoirs increases by 1.49, 3.08, and 3.08 days, respectively.
- Changjiang Estuary /
- South-to-North Water Diversion Project /
- saltwater intrusion /
- freshwater resource /
- numerical model

HTML全文

图 1 长江河口形势图

注: 黑点为2018年3月南槽3个船测站A、B、C和3个浮标测站浮标1、浮标2、浮标3位置; 红点为水库取水口位置; 3条纵向断面(P1—P3)黑线标注, 用于盐水入侵分析; W为崇明东滩气象站位置

Fig. 1 Map of the Changjiang Estuary

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图 2 船只测站B中潮后小潮期间表层(左侧)和底层(右侧)的流速、流向及盐度随时间变化的分布

注: 红点为实测值, 黑线为模拟值

Fig. 2 Temporal variation in the water velocity, direction, and salinity in the neap tide after the middle tide at the surface layer (left panel) and bottom layer (right panel) at monitoring site B

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图 3 浮标测站浮标2的表层流速、流向和盐度随时间变化的分布

注: 红点为实测值, 黑线为模拟值

Fig. 3 Temporal variation in water velocity, direction, and salinity at the surface layer of the monitoring site Buoy2

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图 4 工况1大潮(左侧)和小潮(右侧)期间表层(a, b)和底层(c, d)的平均盐度分布

注: 绿线为0.45等盐度线, 红线为1等盐度线, 橘线为2等盐度线, 下同

Fig. 4 Distribution of the tidal average salinity at the surface layer (a, b) and bottom layer (c, d) during spring tide (left panel) and neap tide (right panel) in Exp1

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图 5 工况1中大潮(左侧)和小潮(右侧)期间沿纵向剖面P1(a, b)、P2(c, d)和P3(e, f)的平均盐度分布

Fig. 5 Distribution of the tidal average salinity along the longitudinal section P1 (a, b), P2 (c, d), and P3 (e, f) during spring tide (left panel) and neap tide (right panel) in Exp1

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图 6 青草沙水库取水口水位(a), 以及东风西沙水库、陈行水库、青草沙水库取水口表层盐度(b—d)随时间的变化

注: 黑线为工况1, 红线为工况2, 紫线为工况3; 水平绿色虚线为盐度0.45, 饮用水标准

Fig. 6 Temporal variation in the water level(a) at the water intake of the Qingcaosha Reservoir, and in surface salinity(b—d) at the water intake of the Dongfengxisha, Chenhang, and Qingcaosha Reservoirs

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图 7 大潮(左侧)和小潮(右侧)期间表层(a, b)和底层(c, d)工况2与工况1的平均盐度差值分布

Fig. 7 Difference distribution of the tidal average salinity at the surface layer (a, b) and the bottom layer (c, d) between Exp2 and Exp1 during spring tide (left panel) and neap tide (right panel)

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图 8 工况2大潮(左侧)和小潮(右侧)期间沿纵向剖面P1(a, b)、P2(c, d)和P3(e, f)的平均盐度分布

Fig. 8 Distribution of the tidal average salinity along the longitudinal section P1 (a, b), P2 (c, d), and P3 (e, f) during spring tide (left panel) and neap tide (right panel) in Exp2

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图 9 大潮(左侧)和小潮(右侧)期间表层(a, b)和底层(c, d)工况3与工况1的平均盐度差值分布

Fig. 9 Difference distribution of the tidal average salinity at the surface layer (a, b) and the bottom layer (c, d) between Exp3 and Exp1 during spring tide (left panel) and neap tide (right panel)

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图 10 工况3大潮(左侧)和小潮(右侧)期间沿纵向剖面P1(a, b)、P2(c, d)和P3(e, f)的平均盐度分布

Fig. 10 Distribution of the tidal average salinity along the longitudinal section P1 (a, b), P2 (c, d), and P3 (e, f) during spring tide (left panel) and neap tide (right panel) in Exp3

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表 1 用于测站表层和底层模拟与实测流速比较的相关系数(CC)、均方差(RMSE)和技术分数(SS)

Tab. 1 Correlation coefficients (CC), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and skill scores (SS) for comparing the modelled and observed water velocity at the surface and bottom layer of the monitoring sites

	测站	RMSE/(m·s^–1)	CC	SS
表层	A	0.35	0.63	0.79
	B	0.23	0.93	0.89
	C	0.34	0.75	0.85
	浮标1	0.34	0.73	0.84
	浮标2	0.27	0.88	0.93
	浮标3	0.24	0.86	0.92
底层	A	0.21	0.51	0.71
	B	0.21	0.75	0.86
	C	0.18	0.73	0.84
	浮标1	0.11	0.78	0.87
	浮标2	0.12	0.84	0.90
	浮标3	0.10	0.80	0.88

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 用于测站表层和底层模拟与实测盐度比较的相关系数(CC)、均方差(RMSE)和技术分数(SS)

Tab. 2 Correlation coefficients (CC), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and skill scores (SS) for comparing the modelled and observed salinity at the surface and bottom layer of the monitoring sites

	测站	RMSE	CC	SS
表层	A	1.88	0.73	0.85
	B	2.49	0.85	0.90
	C	2.24	0.71	0.80
	浮标1	2.33	0.87	0.93
	浮标2	1.73	0.92	0.96
	浮标3	0.36	0.83	0.89
底层	A	2.14	0.66	0.80
	B	1.57	0.92	0.95
	C	1.30	0.86	0.92
	浮标1	1.31	0.87	0.92
	浮标2	—	—	—
	浮标3	0.29	0.90	0.95

下载: 导出CSV

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