The distribution of peak wind speeds induced by typhoons along the coasts of the Changjiang Estuary and Hangzhou Bay
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摘要: 根据台风强度和近岸水位等选取了对上海影响较大的4个典型台风, 并根据实测资料比选确定适合长江口及杭州湾区域的台风最大风速半径公式. 建立了研究区域的台风模型, 并采用典型台风期间实测的风速资料对模型进行了验证. 采用台风模型计算了1949—2014年所有影响上海的台风期间以及4个典型台风期间上海沿岸极值风速、有效极值风速, 定量分析了极值风速和有效极值风速的范围、分布特征.Abstract: In this study, four typical typhoons that significantly affected Shanghai were selected based on their respective intensity and the water level along the Shanghai Coast. The RMW (Radius of Maximum Winds) formula, moreover, was determined using in-situ data from recent typhoons. The typhoon model was built and validated using in-situ wind speeds from the four typhoons selected. The peak wind speed and the forward peak wind speed along the Shanghai Coast were calculated, case by case, during all typhoons over the period from 1949 to 2014 as well as the four typical typhoons selected. Finally, the range and distribution of the peak (forward peak) wind speed were quantitatively studied.
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Key words:
- Shanghai Coast /
- typhoon /
- peak wind speed
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图 1 1949—2014年所有影响上海的热带气旋路径(a)和对上海影响较大的典型台风路径(b)
Fig. 1 Distributions of typhoon tracks that affected Shanghai from 1949 to 2014 (a) and the most significant ones among them (b)
图 2 0509号、0515号和1211号台风期间不同最大风速半径计算公式与JWTC资料比较
注: 黑色三角表示台风中心的纬度, 红色三角表示台风登陆时刻.
Fig. 2 Comparison of the JWTC observed and formula calculated RMW during the 0509, 0515 and 1211 typhoons
图 4 8114号、9711号、0012号和0515号台风期间模型计算和实测风速比较
注: 图中黑点表示实测数据, 曲线表示计算数据.
Fig. 4 Comparison of the observed and modeled wind speed at stations during the 8114, 9711, 0012 and 0515 typhoons
图 5 1949—2014年影响上海的台风期间上海沿岸极值风速(a)和最大有效风速(b)分布
Fig. 5 The distributions peak wind speed (a) and the forward peak wind speed (b) along the Shanghai Coast during all typhoons over the period from 1949 to 2014
图 6 典型台风期间(8114号、9711号、0012号和0515号)上海沿岸极值风速(a)和最大有效风速(b)分布
Fig. 6 The distributions peak wind speed (a) and the forward peak wind speed (b) along the Shanghai Coast during the four typical typhoons selected (8114, 9711, 0012 and 0515)
表 1 影响上海的典型台风信息
Tab. 1 The imformation of tipical typhoon that affected Shanghai
台风 类型 时间 气压/(hPa) 风速/(m·s–1) 4906号 登陆(浙江舟山) 7月24日(农历六月廿九, 中潮) 968 40 5612号 登陆(浙江象山) 8月2日(农历六月廿六, 小潮) 923 60 8114号 近海北上 9月1日(农历八月初四, 大—中潮) 955 40 9711号 登陆(浙江温岭) 8月18日(农历七月十六, 大潮) 955 40 0012号 近海北上 8月30日(农历八月初二, 大潮) 965 35 0509号 登陆(浙江玉环) 8月6日(农历七月初二, 大潮) 950 45 0515号 登陆(浙江台州) 9月11日(农历八月初八, 小潮) 945 50 1211号 登陆(浙江象山) 8月8日(农历六月廿一, 中—小潮) 965 42 1323号 登陆(福建福鼎) 10月7日(农历九月初三, 大潮) 965 45 注: 表中数据为登陆或距上海最近时的时间、气压和风速. 
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表 2 典型台风影响期间上海沿岸水文站的最高水位(吴淞高程)
Tab. 2 Records of high water level during different typhoo of different gauge stations (Wusong datum)
单位: m 台风 金山嘴 芦潮港 吴淞 黄浦公园 米市渡 4906号 5.18 4.77 5612号 4.08 8114号 5.59 4.85 5.74 5.22 3.70 9711号 6.57* 5.68* 5.99* 5.72* 4.27 0012号 5.54 5.22 5.87 5.70 4.15 0509号 5.69 4.83 5.04 4.94 4.38 0515号 3.91 4.02 3.51 3.47 3.44 1211号 5.71 4.81 4.52 4.48 4.05 1323号 5.57 4.99 5.15 5.17 4.61* 注: *表示为该站历史最高水位.
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表 3 1949—2014年所有影响上海的台风(全路径)和典型台风(4路径)中上海沿岸极值风速(m·s–1)、有效极值风速(m·s–1)以及相应的台风名称
Tab. 3 The peak wind speed (m·s–1) and the forward peak wind speed (m·s–1) as well as the corresponding typhoon numbering along the Shanghai Coast during all typhoons over the period from 1949 to 2014 as well as the four typical typhoons selected
序号 区域 全路径全风向 全路径正向 4路径全风向 4路径正向 极值风速 台风名称 有效极值风速 台风名称 极值风速 台风名称 有效极值风速 台风名称 1 宝山 35.94 4906 32.83 4906 21.14 0515 15.35 0012 2 36.80 4906 31.75 4906 20.69 0515 15.85 0012 3 浦东 37.31 4906 30.30 4906 21.04 8114 16.34 0012 4 37.69 4906 31.34 4906 21.98 8114 16.84 0012 5 37.99 4906 29.37 4906 22.80 8114 17.33 0012 6 38.82 4906 30.99 4906 23.74 8114 17.98 0012 7 39.41 4906 29.45 4906 24.80 8114 18.71 0012 8 40.40 4906 31.42 4906 26.11 8114 19.58 0012 9 41.80 5901 30.69 4906 27.60 8114 20.73 0012 10 42.79 4906 39.65 5901 27.44 8114 17.58 0515 11 奉贤 42.72 4906 37.83 4906 26.12 8114 18.38 0515 12 41.93 4906 36.44 4906 24.82 8114 19.25 0515 13 41.01 4906 31.94 5901 23.66 8114 22.77 0515 14 40.09 4906 30.05 5901 23.81 0515 23.81 0515 15 金山 39.10 4906 26.39 9015 25.08 0515 25.08 0515 16 38.15 4906 27.89 5612 26.40 0515 26.40 0515 17 37.45 4906 29.15 5612 27.41 0515 27.41 0515 18 崇明东滩 37.72 7708 33.94 5901 24.37 0012 16.94 0515 19 崇明北沿 38.14 7708 32.40 8509 23.98 0012 21.11 8114 20 36.40 7708 31.69 8509 22.64 0012 19.36 8114 21 35.13 7708 30.11 8509 21.66 0012 17.93 8114 22 34.16 7708 30.49 8509 20.87 0012 17.14 8114 23 32.73 7708 29.57 8913 19.89 0012 15.89 8114 24 31.44 4906 29.28 8913 19.73 0515 14.81 0012 25 崇西 31.27 4906 26.80 8406 20.89 0515 17.90 0012 26 崇明南沿 32.54 4906 28.65 8506 21.58 0515 14.47 0515 27 33.97 4906 28.83 8506 20.97 0515 13.72 0515 28 34.91 4906 29.98 8506 20.20 0515 12.60 0515 29 35.39 4906 30.19 8506 20.71 0012 12.10 0515 30 35.20 4906 32.28 5901 21.83 0012 11.64 0515 31 36.59 7708 35.92 5901 23.23 0012 11.09 0515 32 长兴东南 37.65 5901 32.15 4906 23.40 8114 16.92 0515 33 长兴北沿 36.43 4906 28.69 8913 22.52 8114 18.24 0012 34 长兴南沿 36.86 4906 34.53 5901 21.62 8114 11.41 0515 35 横沙北沿 39.10 5901 29.46 8913 24.76 8114 20.63 8114 36 横沙南沿 38.25 5901 31.27 4906 24.40 8114 16.32 0515
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