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摘要: 利用MannKendall突变检验法分别分析了1956—2005年50年来的宝清站和菜嘴子站年平均径流量演变的阶段性特征，并建立了径流降雨的经验模型，利用该模型分析了气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响.研究结果表明：50年来宝清站和菜嘴子站的年平均径流量演变可分为两个阶段:1956—1967年的基准期和1968—2005年的变化期.变化期内径流量的年际和年内都发生了较大变化，体现在年平均径流量减少显著，两个站的年平均径流量减少量都在50%左右.径流变差系数有不同程度的增长，其中菜嘴子站增长了近30%.年内分配变化主要体现在径流峰值上，菜嘴子站的夏季径流峰值和最低值的出现时间都较第一阶段提前了一个月.变化期内年均径流量的变化主要是由人类活动引起的，气候变化引起的径流量变化占年均径流量总变化量的40%左右.Abstract: In this paper, the nonparametric MannKendallSneyers test was used to analyze the stationarity of the annual streamflow records of Baoqing hydrological station and Caizuizi hydrological station in Naoli River watershed from 1956 to 2005. The empirical model which shows the relationship between rainfall and streamflow was established, and the model was used to assess the impacts of climate changes and human activities on annual streamflows. The result shows that the whole period of annual streamflows from 1956 to 2005 can be divided into two phases: baseline period (1956—1967) and changed period (1968—2005). During the changed period，the interannual and intraannual variability of streamflows changed significantly, and the interannual variability of streamflows was mainly caused by human activities, about 40 percent was caused by climate changes.
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